With only two primaries remaining until the November 2026 general election, both Republicans and Democrats are looking to solidify strong candidates and buck concerning trends.
Republicans face an uphill battle nationwide as historically, the party that holds the White House almost always loses seats in Congress during a midterm election. This pattern is even worse for that party when the president’s approval rating is below 50%. Donald Trump’s approval rating currently sits at 35%.
Democrats are grappling with a populist movement of far-left candidates usually aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, beginning with Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the New York City mayor’s race last year. These candidates, like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, seek to distance the U.S. government from Israel as conflict still rages in Gaza. They also strongly support unionization.
In the New Hampshire Senate race, Republicans face a choice between John Sununu and Scott Brown, two candidates who both served in either the House or Senate before the Trump era. Sununu, whose brother Chris served as the governor of the Granite State, has name recognition as well as an endorsement from the president, and is the clear front-runner. However, he has emphasized his independence on the campaign trail, likely hoping to keep his distance from Trump’s unpopularity.
Last month, GOP voters in Florida’s 14th congressional district nominated Mike Beltran to oppose incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor. IEC Chapter and Workforce Development Director Natasha Sherwood noted that Beltran has a strong relationship with the local IEC chapter, and that the chapter has supported him in past elections. Although Florida’s recent redistricting shifted the district in Beltran’s favor, Castor is an entrenched incumbent with almost 20 years representing the 14th, and the outcome in several redrawn districts remains in doubt.
The 2025-26 redistricting wars have mostly drawn to a close, but last week a decision by the Missouri Supreme Court invalidated a new congressional map in the state, forcing the map onto the November ballot for a voter referendum. This could deny the Republicans one of their expected pickups from the unusual flurry of mid-decade redistricting. On paper, the Republicans gained six to 10 seats. But in the field, some of those newly gerrymandered districts look surprisingly competitive.
Republicans have strong hopes of holding the Senate, but a House flip looks increasingly likely in November. IEC is distributing PAC funds to merit shop-friendly candidates around the country on the basis of four main factors:
- Strength of the candidate’s voting record in terms of support for the merit shop and free enterprise
- Importance of the candidate’s seat to holding a merit shop-friendly majority
- The candidate’s potential for a leadership position in the 120th Congress
- Any relationship the candidate might have with their local IEC chapter(s)
Your help is vital as IEC strives to influence Congress on behalf of merit shop electrical contractors around the country. Learn more about PAC and get involved today!