Since last year, efforts have been underway in several U.S. states to redraw legislative boundaries before the 2026 midterm elections. This unprecedented effort is muddying analysts’ predictions for the election and could result in more or less competition, depending on a host of factors.
Redistricting is required every 10 years following the U.S. Census, and the last census was completed in 2020. This is to ensure that each state’s congressional representation keeps pace with population changes in the state – whether the population grows or declines. But some states, depending on their respective constitutions, have the ability to voluntarily redistrict more often.
Texas was the first to redistrict in 2025 at the behest of President Donald Trump, who predicted five new Republican seats for Texas through redrawing electoral maps. Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio followed months later in a similar effort to pick up Republican seats.
Democratic California governor Gavin Newsom, seeing this trend and looking to position himself for a presidential bid in 2028, countered by pushing for a special referendum for California to redraw its own legislative boundaries until 2030. This referendum was approved by state voters in November 2025, setting up a nationwide race between the Democratic and Republican parties to solidify as many districts as possible.
Maryland and New York have initiated the redistricting process but have yet to implement a new map, while Florida’s new map was signed into law last week. The GOP-majority state legislature in Indiana voted down a proposed redistricting plan in December despite pressure from the White House, and Virginia recently approved a new legislative map. However, Virginia’s new map was struck down by the state Supreme Court on Friday, with the court citing procedural violations in the legislature’s effort to place the constitutional amendment on the ballot.
The U.S. Supreme Court, in several rulings, has declined to proclaim redistricting that deliberately favors a political party unconstitutional. Some state constitutions, however, explicitly ban this practice, also called “gerrymandering.”
On April 29, the Court issued a landmark ruling that impacted enforcement of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. The law mandates review of congressional maps in 13 states with a history of racial discrimination, mostly in the South. According to some estimates, the VRA protected nearly 70 Democratic districts around the country. The Court’s ruling declared that this protection was an unconstitutional gerrymander on the basis of race.
Four additional states have taken swift action in the wake of this ruling to redraw their congressional maps before the November election: Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama, and South Carolina. This has touched off additional court challenges in these states and appears to have renewed the redistricting battle.
Pundits have wondered if the redistricting effort could backfire on parties after sweeping Democratic victories in 2025 and early 2026 in the New Jersey and Virginia governor’s mansions, Virginia legislature, and various special elections across the country. In order to “crack” a safe Democratic district, a legislature would have to add those voters to Republican districts, making them more competitive.
Ultimately, the results of this mid-decade redistricting will not be known until after the polls close in November. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, and historical precedent indicates that the president’s party almost always loses seats in a midterm election.
Given the recent decisions by the U.S. and Virginia Supreme Courts, it is likely that Republicans will pick up an advantage in the redistricting fight, though whether this is enough to reverse historical precedent remains to be seen.